USING NAFDAC RECORDS AND CAPTURE-RECAPTURE METHODS TO TRACK THE POPULATION SIZE OF FAKE DRUG SYNDICATES IN LAGOS, NIGERIA
- Ugochukwu A. Osisiogu
- Emeka E. Chinwuba
- ( paper pages. 395 - 411 )
Abstract
Most literature on
fake drugs focus on the causes, sale and threat to human life, but none has
examined the population size of the drug syndicates. This gap in the literature
informed this study, because the syndicates are an integral part of the fake
drug problem. Information on fake drugs was obtained from the National Agency
for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC), the agency responsible for
checkmating illicit and counterfeit drugs in Nigeria. Four candidate estimators
namely, Maximum likelihood
(ML), Turing, Chao lower bound, and Zelterman, estimated the population of fake
drug syndicates (FDSs) in Lagos to be 817, 1095, 1538, and 1657 respectively,
while their weighted estimator was () = 1277. Since 613 syndicates were arrested from
January to December 2022, while 1277 were estimated, this suggests that
only about 48% of the total population size of FDSs in Lagos have been observed
with 95% CI (1145; 1409), leaving about 52% still doing the illicit business. The
study also shows that of all the offences observed, falsification of genuine
drugs was the most rampant, followed by selling of expired drugs. In addition to establishing the population size of
FDSs, the results of this study will provide information that will form the
basis for resource allocation to NAFDAC zonal offices. The war against fake
drugs may not succeed without investment in novel technologies that will
improve NAFDAC’s services. The result of this study will therefore help to
advance the efforts to defeat the scourge of fake drugs.
Citation
Ugochukwu A. Osisiogu, Emeka E. Chinwuba.
2023.
"USING NAFDAC RECORDS AND CAPTURE-RECAPTURE METHODS TO TRACK THE POPULATION SIZE OF FAKE DRUG SYNDICATES IN LAGOS, NIGERIA"
The Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social Studies,
65 (3): 395 - 411.
